ABARES latest outlook for crops report released earlier this month highlights the ongoing impacts of a long-term decline in global wine consumption. ‘Per capita wine consumption in major wine consuming markets has been falling for the past decade, driven by competition from other alcoholic beverages and an increased consumer focus on health and wellness.’
In addition, below average world economic growth and household disposable income particularly in advanced economies is likely to weigh on discretionary spending’. This is a persistent problem for wine producers and growers countering any enthusiasm from increased exports following the dropping of China’s tariffs.
ABARES expectation is that there will be another decline in winegrape prices in 2024–25. Australia-wide they forecast an average of $591 per tonne. The likelihood of a slight (but note only ‘slight’) decline was attribute to a combination of subdued demand and high red wine stocks from previous vintages countering the predicted increase in export volume and value in 2024–25. An updated outlook report is available on this site each quarter.
Wine Australia use their own regression analysis model based on a range of price indicators such as export prices. Those results are not too far removed in their forecast suggesting that grape prices will start to flatten next season. For more specific information relating to grape prices and other factors impacting the wine market, check out Wine Australia’s excellent platform on drivers of pricing here.
